Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 12.825240 14.656505 16.640904 18.949002 21.557815 24.413117 27.773080
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 10.253245 12.736501 15.641208 19.281797 23.714508 28.928012 35.516393
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 8.711770 11.416658 14.738997 19.105274 24.676803 31.531611 40.587102
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 7.448408 10.238314 13.817168 18.722172 25.244915 33.592929 45.056061
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.630503 9.497628 13.315667 18.740269 26.212724 36.102289 50.134510
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.062235 9.013934 13.079617 19.046259 27.529166 39.097251 55.996856
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 5.536648 8.522267 12.765115 19.180459 28.569752 41.729525 61.472868
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.004417 7.959874 12.285751 19.013394 29.131871 43.682340 66.061647
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.636413 7.602901 12.065549 19.189040 30.175663 46.351827 71.805422
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.419979 7.456114 12.140966 19.801309 31.892796 50.085964 79.318148
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.043685 7.016854 11.722053 19.601884 32.328651 51.892522 83.981984
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.535691 6.313923 10.824744 18.563873 31.355960 51.448513 85.093877
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.364319 6.169744 10.833945 19.016675 32.833002 54.967715 92.741527
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.198791 6.020882 10.822724 19.432104 34.272930 58.509547 100.636110
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.943878 5.688356 10.468208 19.227235 34.642260 60.303688 105.729983
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.687282 5.328917 10.036608 18.850681 34.681474 61.534367 109.927337
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.514737 5.110136 9.836544 18.865930 35.395555 63.930090 116.218630
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.398626 4.988401 9.802048 19.174867 36.644086 67.302095 124.368221
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.268330 4.827039 9.680257 19.309586 37.577472 70.161644 131.753059
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.110838 4.597110 9.410039 19.141569 37.933825 72.001810 137.394528
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.007465 4.468337 9.324253 19.318297 38.940758 75.057474 145.383163
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.960466 4.453022 9.459666 19.934477 40.819097 79.800638 156.713309
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.828947 4.246086 9.195112 19.733779 41.094839 81.567958 162.559396